Why PEP loved Burnley but the Premier League Didn’t

Note: This is a guest blog post written by Sam Gregory

PEP is a non-shots based Expected Goal model, which you can read more about here.

Looking at the PEP data for the 2014-15 Premier League season the team rankings anecdotally make sense to me with the exception of one notable outlier, Burnley. Continue reading Why PEP loved Burnley but the Premier League Didn’t

A Non-Shots Based Expected Goals Model: PEP

Note: This is a guest blog post written by Sam Gregory

Update: I should point out that I am not the first to come up with the idea of a non-shots based Expected Goal model. Dan Altman outlined one in his OptaPro Forum presentation from earlier this year and Will TGM also looked at valuing possessions in a similar way.

Expected Goals has become all consuming in football analytics. Every prediction whether it be at the team or player level seems to be based on shot based Expected Goal models. In general this makes sense, Expected Goals are a very intuitive concept that essentially capture chance quality. They have very real and useful applications.

Continue reading A Non-Shots Based Expected Goals Model: PEP

C.R.E.A.M: Crosses Ruin Everything Around Me – Sherwood’s Villa and what went wrong.

Writing this article I’m thinking that the title is going to either be genius or downright stupid, but I’ve been listening to a lot of Wu-Tang Clan recently and this oddly clicked for me when writing this piece. This is a short, but hopefully detailed analysis of Aston Villa’s attacking play so far this season under the (now departed) Tim Sherwood, what has gone wrong and what they need to change.

Continue reading C.R.E.A.M: Crosses Ruin Everything Around Me – Sherwood’s Villa and what went wrong.

DIY Fanalytics: A list of new resources

In the last few weeks there’s been a large number of new tools and resources introduced by a number of writers, so I thought it would be a good time to pull them all together below. There’s a lot that can be done with these sites in terms of analysis compared to when I started writing a year ago, so check them out and have a play!

Continue reading DIY Fanalytics: A list of new resources

Visualizing and Measuring Defensive Contribution

Like many other amateur analysts, I find quantifying the defensive side of the game an interesting and painful problem. Counting defensive actions does not really tell us much apart from team style, so you cannot effectively measure how good a player is from this limited data. This is not to say it cannot be done, we’ve just not found out the best way to do it yet.

Continue reading Visualizing and Measuring Defensive Contribution

Value Available vs Value on Field: Evaluating MLS Salary Cap Management

This post sets out to use expansion side Orlando City as an example of how value in MLS can be calculated, and how a teams’ management of the salary cap can be scrutinised using a simple visualization.

With the release of the salary cap last week there are a hundred and one things I want to do with this data. The first idea is something that myself and Ben Torvaney thought of a while back when discussing what we would do if we had the salary data of the Premier League and other European leagues, if it was available like it is in MLS (fun topic of conversation I know). Evidently that data is unlikely to ever be released for any of the big leagues, so MLS is the only league these ideas can be applied to.

Continue reading Value Available vs Value on Field: Evaluating MLS Salary Cap Management

What the hell is going on at Brentford?! (3/3)

With the summer transfer window in full swing, it’s a good time to look at what is going on over in Brentford and find out who the new additions that have joined the Bees are.

As many readers will know, Brentford are the poster boys for the data revolution in football. With that in mind, every single move that they make can be scrutinized to look at the reasons behind the signing and how they are going to shape the team in the upcoming season.

In this mini series, I’m going to analyse the new signings at Brentford, and try to understand the moves at the club a bit more.

In part one of this series, the key coaching acquisitions of Brentford were covered. In part two the technical staff were discussed. This final part looks at the players signed and potential reasons why.

Continue reading What the hell is going on at Brentford?! (3/3)